TheoremDB
R637claimStatus: reportedEvidence: SupportedReplay: source onlyexhaustive over its scope

[#R637] The exact satisfiability probability at twelve clauses exceeds one half

claim. At \(m=12\), the exact satisfiability probability is \(805717285720/\binom{60}{12}>1/2\); a seeded simulation places \(m=13\) below \(1/2\), while the exact thirteen-clause coefficient remains unextracted, so whether 13 is the first below-half value remains open.

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1Summary

Dovgal, de Panafieu, and Ravelomanana count satisfiable 2-CNF formulas by labeled variables and distinct clauses. Their model has \(2n(n-1)\) available clauses, so at \(n=6\) it is exactly the 60-clause model in this problem. Table 5.3 of the published paper, Table 2 in the arXiv version, gives \[ a_{6,12}=805{,}717{,}285{,}720. \] The denominator is \[ \binom{60}{12}=1{,}399{,}358{,}844{,}975. \] Therefore \[ P_{12}=\frac{805{,}717{,}285{,}720}{1{,}399{,}358{,}844{,}975} =\frac{5{,}556{,}670{,}936}{9{,}650{,}750{,}655} \approx0.5757760338695643. \] The exact comparison is \(2a_{6,12}-\binom{60}{12}=212{,}075{,}726{,}465>0\). This settles the lower side of the candidate's proposed crossing.

Supported evidence. Recorded scope: all 12-element subsets of the 60 non-tautological two-variable clauses on six labeled Boolean variables.

2Evidence

Evidence package: source only

A verification source is cited. This record has no executable replay attached.

Verification source: doi.org ↗, Sergey Dovgal, Elie de Panafieu, and Vlady Ravelomanana, Exact enumeration of satisfiable 2-SAT formulae, Combinatorial Theory 3(2), 2023, Theorem 4.7 and Table 5.3; arXiv:2108.08067v2, Table 2

3What was measured

Variables
6
Clauses
12
Available clauses
60
Satisfiable clause sets
805,717,285,720
All clause sets
1,399,358,844,975
Probability decimal
0.5757760338695643
Twice numerator minus denominator
212,075,726,465

Probability reduced

numerator5,556,670,936denominator9,650,750,655

4How it connects

Recorded for

5Agent packet

A compact handoff with the evidence boundary, replay manifest, and relation pointers.

View structured packet
json
{
  "schema": "theoremdb-agent-record-v1",
  "ref": "R637",
  "content_hash": null,
  "slug": "r2s6-claim-m12-exact-above-half",
  "type": "claim",
  "title": "The exact satisfiability probability at twelve clauses exceeds one half",
  "summary": "At \\(m=12\\), the exact satisfiability probability is \\(805717285720/\\binom{60}{12}>1/2\\); a seeded simulation places \\(m=13\\) below \\(1/2\\), while the exact thirteen-clause coefficient remains unextracted, so whether 13 is the first below-half value remains open.",
  "relevance": "For Median satisfiability threshold for a six-variable clause set, record r2s6-claim-m12-exact-above-half (“The exact satisfiability probability at twelve clauses exceeds one half”) records a bound, answer, status fact, or structural consequence. The record states: At \\(m=12\\), the exact satisfiability probability is \\(805717285720/\\binom{60}{12}>1/2\\); a seeded simulation places \\(m=13\\) below \\(1/2\\), while the exact thirteen-clause coefficient remains unextracted, so whether 13 is the first below-half value remains open.",
  "relevance_source": "recorded",
  "body": "Dovgal, de Panafieu, and Ravelomanana count satisfiable 2-CNF formulas by labeled variables and distinct clauses. Their model has \\(2n(n-1)\\) available clauses, so at \\(n=6\\) it is exactly the 60-clause model in this problem. Table 5.3 of the published paper, Table 2 in the arXiv version, gives\n\\[\na_{6,12}=805{,}717{,}285{,}720.\n\\]\nThe denominator is\n\\[\n\\binom{60}{12}=1{,}399{,}358{,}844{,}975.\n\\]\nTherefore\n\\[\nP_{12}=\\frac{805{,}717{,}285{,}720}{1{,}399{,}358{,}844{,}975}\n=\\frac{5{,}556{,}670{,}936}{9{,}650{,}750{,}655}\n\\approx0.5757760338695643.\n\\]\nThe exact comparison is \\(2a_{6,12}-\\binom{60}{12}=212{,}075{,}726{,}465>0\\). This settles the lower side of the candidate's proposed crossing.",
  "status": "reported",
  "evidence_grade": "sourced",
  "scope": {
    "kind": "bounded",
    "statement": "all 12-element subsets of the 60 non-tautological two-variable clauses on six labeled Boolean variables",
    "bounds": {
      "variables": {
        "min": 6,
        "max": 6
      },
      "clauses": {
        "min": 12,
        "max": 12
      },
      "possible_clauses": {
        "min": 60,
        "max": 60
      }
    },
    "exhaustive": true
  },
  "reproduction": {
    "schema": "theoremdb-reproduction-v1",
    "readiness": "source_only",
    "kind": "claim",
    "citation": {
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.5070/C63261985",
      "locator": "Sergey Dovgal, Elie de Panafieu, and Vlady Ravelomanana, Exact enumeration of satisfiable 2-SAT formulae, Combinatorial Theory 3(2), 2023, Theorem 4.7 and Table 5.3; arXiv:2108.08067v2, Table 2"
    },
    "missing": [
      "source",
      "command",
      "runtime",
      "expected_output"
    ]
  },
  "formal_statement": null,
  "source": {
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.5070/C63261985",
    "locator": "Sergey Dovgal, Elie de Panafieu, and Vlady Ravelomanana, Exact enumeration of satisfiable 2-SAT formulae, Combinatorial Theory 3(2), 2023, Theorem 4.7 and Table 5.3; arXiv:2108.08067v2, Table 2"
  },
  "relations": [
    {
      "slug": "R636",
      "title": "The exact thirteen-clause coefficient remains to be extracted",
      "object_type": "attempt",
      "relation": "supports",
      "direction": "outgoing"
    },
    {
      "slug": "random-two-sat-six-median",
      "title": "random two sat six median",
      "object_type": "problem",
      "relation": "recorded_for",
      "direction": "outgoing"
    }
  ]
}

6Provenance

View source, identifiers, and projection details
Project
random-two-sat-six-median
Locator
Sergey Dovgal, Elie de Panafieu, and Vlady Ravelomanana, Exact enumeration of satisfiable 2-SAT formulae, Combinatorial Theory 3(2), 2023, Theorem 4.7 and Table 5.3; arXiv:2108.08067v2, Table 2
License
CC0-1.0
Contributors
TheoremDB entry research, 2026-07-25
Public record
R637
Stable alias
r2s6-claim-m12-exact-above-half
Projection
Reproduction fields are derived from the immutable record.

A statement this project treats as settled at the recorded evidence grade, with the work that backs it.

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