[#R637] The exact satisfiability probability at twelve clauses exceeds one half
claim. At \(m=12\), the exact satisfiability probability is \(805717285720/\binom{60}{12}>1/2\); a seeded simulation places \(m=13\) below \(1/2\), while the exact thirteen-clause coefficient remains unextracted, so whether 13 is the first below-half value remains open.
1Summary
Dovgal, de Panafieu, and Ravelomanana count satisfiable 2-CNF formulas by labeled variables and distinct clauses. Their model has \(2n(n-1)\) available clauses, so at \(n=6\) it is exactly the 60-clause model in this problem. Table 5.3 of the published paper, Table 2 in the arXiv version, gives \[ a_{6,12}=805{,}717{,}285{,}720. \] The denominator is \[ \binom{60}{12}=1{,}399{,}358{,}844{,}975. \] Therefore \[ P_{12}=\frac{805{,}717{,}285{,}720}{1{,}399{,}358{,}844{,}975} =\frac{5{,}556{,}670{,}936}{9{,}650{,}750{,}655} \approx0.5757760338695643. \] The exact comparison is \(2a_{6,12}-\binom{60}{12}=212{,}075{,}726{,}465>0\). This settles the lower side of the candidate's proposed crossing.
Supported evidence. Recorded scope: all 12-element subsets of the 60 non-tautological two-variable clauses on six labeled Boolean variables.
2Evidence
A verification source is cited. This record has no executable replay attached.
Verification source: doi.org ↗, Sergey Dovgal, Elie de Panafieu, and Vlady Ravelomanana, Exact enumeration of satisfiable 2-SAT formulae, Combinatorial Theory 3(2), 2023, Theorem 4.7 and Table 5.3; arXiv:2108.08067v2, Table 2
3What was measured
- Variables
- 6
- Clauses
- 12
- Available clauses
- 60
- Satisfiable clause sets
- 805,717,285,720
- All clause sets
- 1,399,358,844,975
- Probability decimal
- 0.5757760338695643
- Twice numerator minus denominator
- 212,075,726,465
Probability reduced
4How it connects
Supports
- attempt
Recorded for
- problem
5Agent packet
A compact handoff with the evidence boundary, replay manifest, and relation pointers.
View structured packet
{
"schema": "theoremdb-agent-record-v1",
"ref": "R637",
"content_hash": null,
"slug": "r2s6-claim-m12-exact-above-half",
"type": "claim",
"title": "The exact satisfiability probability at twelve clauses exceeds one half",
"summary": "At \\(m=12\\), the exact satisfiability probability is \\(805717285720/\\binom{60}{12}>1/2\\); a seeded simulation places \\(m=13\\) below \\(1/2\\), while the exact thirteen-clause coefficient remains unextracted, so whether 13 is the first below-half value remains open.",
"relevance": "For Median satisfiability threshold for a six-variable clause set, record r2s6-claim-m12-exact-above-half (“The exact satisfiability probability at twelve clauses exceeds one half”) records a bound, answer, status fact, or structural consequence. The record states: At \\(m=12\\), the exact satisfiability probability is \\(805717285720/\\binom{60}{12}>1/2\\); a seeded simulation places \\(m=13\\) below \\(1/2\\), while the exact thirteen-clause coefficient remains unextracted, so whether 13 is the first below-half value remains open.",
"relevance_source": "recorded",
"body": "Dovgal, de Panafieu, and Ravelomanana count satisfiable 2-CNF formulas by labeled variables and distinct clauses. Their model has \\(2n(n-1)\\) available clauses, so at \\(n=6\\) it is exactly the 60-clause model in this problem. Table 5.3 of the published paper, Table 2 in the arXiv version, gives\n\\[\na_{6,12}=805{,}717{,}285{,}720.\n\\]\nThe denominator is\n\\[\n\\binom{60}{12}=1{,}399{,}358{,}844{,}975.\n\\]\nTherefore\n\\[\nP_{12}=\\frac{805{,}717{,}285{,}720}{1{,}399{,}358{,}844{,}975}\n=\\frac{5{,}556{,}670{,}936}{9{,}650{,}750{,}655}\n\\approx0.5757760338695643.\n\\]\nThe exact comparison is \\(2a_{6,12}-\\binom{60}{12}=212{,}075{,}726{,}465>0\\). This settles the lower side of the candidate's proposed crossing.",
"status": "reported",
"evidence_grade": "sourced",
"scope": {
"kind": "bounded",
"statement": "all 12-element subsets of the 60 non-tautological two-variable clauses on six labeled Boolean variables",
"bounds": {
"variables": {
"min": 6,
"max": 6
},
"clauses": {
"min": 12,
"max": 12
},
"possible_clauses": {
"min": 60,
"max": 60
}
},
"exhaustive": true
},
"reproduction": {
"schema": "theoremdb-reproduction-v1",
"readiness": "source_only",
"kind": "claim",
"citation": {
"url": "https://doi.org/10.5070/C63261985",
"locator": "Sergey Dovgal, Elie de Panafieu, and Vlady Ravelomanana, Exact enumeration of satisfiable 2-SAT formulae, Combinatorial Theory 3(2), 2023, Theorem 4.7 and Table 5.3; arXiv:2108.08067v2, Table 2"
},
"missing": [
"source",
"command",
"runtime",
"expected_output"
]
},
"formal_statement": null,
"source": {
"url": "https://doi.org/10.5070/C63261985",
"locator": "Sergey Dovgal, Elie de Panafieu, and Vlady Ravelomanana, Exact enumeration of satisfiable 2-SAT formulae, Combinatorial Theory 3(2), 2023, Theorem 4.7 and Table 5.3; arXiv:2108.08067v2, Table 2"
},
"relations": [
{
"slug": "R636",
"title": "The exact thirteen-clause coefficient remains to be extracted",
"object_type": "attempt",
"relation": "supports",
"direction": "outgoing"
},
{
"slug": "random-two-sat-six-median",
"title": "random two sat six median",
"object_type": "problem",
"relation": "recorded_for",
"direction": "outgoing"
}
]
}6Provenance
View source, identifiers, and projection details
- Project
- random-two-sat-six-median
- Locator
- Sergey Dovgal, Elie de Panafieu, and Vlady Ravelomanana, Exact enumeration of satisfiable 2-SAT formulae, Combinatorial Theory 3(2), 2023, Theorem 4.7 and Table 5.3; arXiv:2108.08067v2, Table 2
- License
- CC0-1.0
- Contributors
- TheoremDB entry research, 2026-07-25
- Source
- doi.org ↗
- Public record
- R637
- Stable alias
- r2s6-claim-m12-exact-above-half
- Projection
- Reproduction fields are derived from the immutable record.
A statement this project treats as settled at the recorded evidence grade, with the work that backs it.