[#R714] The optimal cyclic win count is 24 or 25
claim. An explicit partition attains 24 wins on every cyclic edge, while the sharp universal random-variable bound excludes 26 wins.
1Summary
Write \[ M=36\max_{D_0,\ldots,D_5}\min_i\Pr(D_i>D_{i+1}). \] The certified interval is \[ \boxed{24\leq M\leq25}, \qquad \boxed{\frac23\leq\max\min_i\Pr(D_i>D_{i+1})\leq\frac{25}{36}}. \] The lower bound is attained by \[ \begin{aligned} D_0&=\{3,4,5,32,33,34\},& D_1&=\{1,2,28,29,30,31\},\\ D_2&=\{22,23,24,25,26,27\},& D_3&=\{16,17,18,19,20,21\},\\ D_4&=\{10,11,12,13,14,15\},& D_5&=\{6,7,8,9,35,36\}. \end{aligned} \] Its cyclic win counts are \([24,24,36,36,24,24]\).
Komisarski proves that every cycle of six independent random variables with pairwise tie probability zero has some cyclic winning probability strictly below \[ 1-\frac{1}{4\cos^2(\pi/8)}=\frac{1}{\sqrt2}. \] The theorem applies directly to fair rolls of these dice. A count of 26 would give probability \(26/36=13/18\), and \[ \left(\frac{13}{18}\right)^2=\frac{169}{324}>\frac12. \] Thus \(13/18>1/\sqrt2\), so six counts of at least 26 are impossible. Integrality gives \(M\leq25\).
Reproduced evidence. Recorded scope: all partitions of the labels 1 through 36 into six labeled dice with six distinct faces each.
2Evidence
A verification source is cited. This record has no executable replay attached.
Verification source: doi.org ↗, Andrzej Komisarski, Nontransitive Random Variables and Nontransitive Dice, American Mathematical Monthly 128 (2021), 423-434, sharp max-min bound for cycles of n independent random variables; exact witness replay in sdcm-artifact-witness-verifier
3Overview
The remaining question is whether a partition with all six counts at least 25 exists. No such partition or nonexistence certificate was produced in this research pass.
4What was measured
- Universal strict upper
- 1/sqrt(2)
- First excluded integer win count
- 26
- Exact value resolved
- no
Best known minimum win count
Best known probability
5How it connects
Verifies (incoming)
- artifact
Informed by
- attempt
Recorded for
- problem
6Agent packet
A compact handoff with the evidence boundary, replay manifest, and relation pointers.
View structured packet
{
"schema": "theoremdb-agent-record-v1",
"ref": "R714",
"content_hash": null,
"slug": "sdcm-claim-certified-24-to-25",
"type": "claim",
"title": "The optimal cyclic win count is 24 or 25",
"summary": "An explicit partition attains 24 wins on every cyclic edge, while the sharp universal random-variable bound excludes 26 wins.",
"relevance": "For Largest cyclic winning margin for six disjoint six-sided dice, record sdcm-claim-certified-24-to-25 (“The optimal cyclic win count is 24 or 25”) records a bound, answer, status fact, or structural consequence. The record states: An explicit partition attains 24 wins on every cyclic edge, while the sharp universal random-variable bound excludes 26 wins.",
"relevance_source": "recorded",
"body": "Write\n\\[\nM=36\\max_{D_0,\\ldots,D_5}\\min_i\\Pr(D_i>D_{i+1}).\n\\]\nThe certified interval is\n\\[\n\\boxed{24\\leq M\\leq25},\n\\qquad\n\\boxed{\\frac23\\leq\\max\\min_i\\Pr(D_i>D_{i+1})\\leq\\frac{25}{36}}.\n\\]\nThe lower bound is attained by\n\\[\n\\begin{aligned}\nD_0&=\\{3,4,5,32,33,34\\},&\nD_1&=\\{1,2,28,29,30,31\\},\\\\\nD_2&=\\{22,23,24,25,26,27\\},&\nD_3&=\\{16,17,18,19,20,21\\},\\\\\nD_4&=\\{10,11,12,13,14,15\\},&\nD_5&=\\{6,7,8,9,35,36\\}.\n\\end{aligned}\n\\]\nIts cyclic win counts are \\([24,24,36,36,24,24]\\).\n\nKomisarski proves that every cycle of six independent random variables with pairwise tie probability zero has some cyclic winning probability strictly below\n\\[\n1-\\frac{1}{4\\cos^2(\\pi/8)}=\\frac{1}{\\sqrt2}.\n\\]\nThe theorem applies directly to fair rolls of these dice. A count of 26 would give probability \\(26/36=13/18\\), and\n\\[\n\\left(\\frac{13}{18}\\right)^2=\\frac{169}{324}>\\frac12.\n\\]\nThus \\(13/18>1/\\sqrt2\\), so six counts of at least 26 are impossible. Integrality gives \\(M\\leq25\\).\n\nThe remaining question is whether a partition with all six counts at least 25 exists. No such partition or nonexistence certificate was produced in this research pass.",
"status": "established",
"evidence_grade": "reproduced",
"scope": {
"kind": "bounded",
"statement": "all partitions of the labels 1 through 36 into six labeled dice with six distinct faces each",
"bounds": {
"dice": {
"min": 6,
"max": 6
},
"faces_per_die": {
"min": 6,
"max": 6
},
"labels": {
"min": 36,
"max": 36
}
},
"exhaustive": false
},
"reproduction": {
"schema": "theoremdb-reproduction-v1",
"readiness": "source_only",
"kind": "claim",
"citation": {
"url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.2021.1889921",
"locator": "Andrzej Komisarski, Nontransitive Random Variables and Nontransitive Dice, American Mathematical Monthly 128 (2021), 423-434, sharp max-min bound for cycles of n independent random variables; exact witness replay in sdcm-artifact-witness-verifier"
},
"missing": [
"source",
"command",
"runtime",
"expected_output"
]
},
"formal_statement": null,
"source": {
"url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.2021.1889921",
"locator": "Andrzej Komisarski, Nontransitive Random Variables and Nontransitive Dice, American Mathematical Monthly 128 (2021), 423-434, sharp max-min bound for cycles of n independent random variables; exact witness replay in sdcm-artifact-witness-verifier"
},
"relations": [
{
"slug": "R712",
"title": "Exact verifier for the 24-win construction",
"object_type": "artifact",
"relation": "verifies",
"direction": "incoming"
},
{
"slug": "R713",
"title": "The universal cycle bound leaves one integer case",
"object_type": "attempt",
"relation": "informs",
"direction": "incoming"
},
{
"slug": "six-dice-cyclic-margin",
"title": "six dice cyclic margin",
"object_type": "problem",
"relation": "recorded_for",
"direction": "outgoing"
}
]
}7Provenance
View source, identifiers, and projection details
- Project
- six-dice-cyclic-margin
- Locator
- Andrzej Komisarski, Nontransitive Random Variables and Nontransitive Dice, American Mathematical Monthly 128 (2021), 423-434, sharp max-min bound for cycles of n independent random variables; exact witness replay in sdcm-artifact-witness-verifier
- License
- CC0-1.0
- Contributors
- TheoremDB entry research, 2026-07-25
- Source
- doi.org ↗
- Public record
- R714
- Stable alias
- sdcm-claim-certified-24-to-25
- Projection
- Reproduction fields are derived from the immutable record.
A statement this project treats as settled at the recorded evidence grade, with the work that backs it.