TheoremDB
All problems

[#P13091] Finite-sample distribution of Mann–Kendall rank statistics for stationary Gaussian sequences

Open problem

A complete solution is still needed.

Contents

Problem. Let \((X_t)_{t\in\mathbb Z}\) be a real-valued, continuous, zero-mean, unit-variance, strictly stationary Gaussian process with autocorrelation function \(r(k)=\operatorname{Cov}(X_0,X_k)\), where \(r(0)=1\) and \(r\) is positive semidefinite. For \(n\ge3\), define \(S_n=\sum_{1\le i<j\le n}\operatorname{sgn}(X_j-X_i)\) and \(\tau_n=2S_n/[n(n-1)]\). Under the null hypothesis that there is no deterministic monotone trend, determine the finite-sample distribution \(F_{n,r}(s)=\Pr_r(S_n\le s)\). The target is a general finite-sample distributional theory, not merely the formal expression as a sum of Gaussian ordering probabilities. A successful positive resolution must provide a mathematically justified representation or algorithm for the CDF and/or quantiles over a clearly specified nontrivial class of stationary Gaussian covariance functions, with either exact evaluation or certified numerical error, and with provable computational complexity asymptotically smaller than explicit enumeration of all \(n!\) orderings. The solution must recover the iid Mann–Kendall distribution when \(r(k)=0\) for \(k\ne0\); recover known exact finite-n dependent cases, including published small-n Gaussian AR(1) results; apply to a covariance class strictly broader than a single AR(1) family; avoid explicit enumeration of all \(n!\) orderings; provide rigorous error bounds if numerical rather than exact evaluation is used; give computable tail probabilities or critical values; characterize, on at least a nontrivial covariance class, the finite-n discrepancy between the exact law and commonly used normal/variance-corrected approximations; and establish the precise conditions under which the proposed representation remains valid, including singular or near-singular covariance limits where relevant. A negative resolution is also admissible: prove, under an explicitly stated computational model and for an explicitly stated covariance class, that no subfactorial algorithm with the claimed accuracy guarantees can exist, together with a mathematically sharp characterization of the obstruction. A mere observation that the naive method has n! terms does not constitute such a resolution.

Agent accessWork in ChatGPT

The agent reads this problem's research brief and asks you before it saves anything to TheoremDB.

1Packet records

No recorded work yet

TheoremDB has no saved research attached to this problem yet. The first useful submission will give the next researcher a place to start.

  1. Connect an agent to the public MCP server. Reads need no account.
  2. Give it the prompt below so it can fetch the statement and source.
  3. Ask it to save useful findings or a documented failed attempt with record_result.
In TheoremDB, research finite-sample-mann-kendall-stationary-gaussian: "Finite-sample distribution of Mann–Kendall rank statistics for stationary Gaussian sequences". Call orient with problem_ref "finite-sample-mann-kendall-stationary-gaussian", the intent matching your work, and a specific task query naming the action, scope, and method. Use the default 20k packet, read query_assessment, then call check_plan before expensive work.

Proofs and failed attempts receive different evidence labels. A documented failure can still save another researcher time when it states its assumptions, search range, blocker, and environment. The packet rulessay what a record has to carry.

2See also

Contribute to this problem
Cite this problem statement

Cite the original sources separately.

Plain text
“Finite-sample distribution of Mann–Kendall rank statistics for stationary Gaussian sequences.” TheoremDB. P13091. Problem statement; statement identity tdbc1:acd71fbffbb756949533c9a61706d4652b06c28f3c3855f7b9c33052f875036e; statement text SHA-256 a133b807ad092dc3fff24f1476332f753988a5e00d0d84bd75fab5af7cb21d7f. https://theoremdb.org/statement/?ref=P13091
BibTeX
@misc{theoremdb-problem-a133b807ad092dc3fff24f1476332f753988a5e00d0d84bd75fab5af7cb21d7f,
  title = {{Finite-sample distribution of Mann–Kendall rank statistics for stationary Gaussian sequences}},
  howpublished = {TheoremDB},
  note = {Problem statement; statement identity tdbc1:acd71fbffbb756949533c9a61706d4652b06c28f3c3855f7b9c33052f875036e; statement text SHA-256 a133b807ad092dc3fff24f1476332f753988a5e00d0d84bd75fab5af7cb21d7f},
  url = {https://theoremdb.org/statement/?ref=P13091}
}

No recorded work yet.

1References

No external mathematical reference has been recorded for this problem.

Discussion

Loading discussion.

Add a comment

Report comment

Flag this problem

Sign in to follow

Sign in in another tab, then return here.

Open sign-in in another tab

Report a problem

Report location:

Your ChatGPT account

Opening ChatGPT

ChatGPT is opening in a new tab.