Problem packetWorkR654
[#R654] The primary order-12 estimate is 1.62 times 10^44
claim. McKay and Rogoyski estimated R_12 at 1.62e44 using an unbiased sequential-extension estimator over 1.1 million trials.
1Summary
McKay and Rogoyski generated a normalized Latin square row by row. At each step they chose uniformly among legal extensions with the required first-column entry. If \(e_i\) is the number of legal choices at step \(i\), then \(e_1e_2\cdots e_{n-1}\) is an unbiased estimator of \(R_n\). Their Table 2 reports 1,100,000 trials for \(n=12\) and the estimate \[ R_{12}\mathrel{\approx}1.62\times10^{44}. \] The authors described the displayed digits as probably accurate to one unit in the last shown digit. This value is statistical evidence. It is neither an exact integer nor a rigorous confidence interval.
Supported evidence. Recorded scope: the 1,100,000 randomized trials reported for reduced Latin squares of order 12.
2Evidence
A verification source is cited. This record has no executable replay attached.
Verification source: doi.org ↗, Brendan D. McKay and Eric Rogoyski, Latin Squares of Order 10, Electronic Journal of Combinatorics 2 (1995), #N3, Section 3 and Table 2
3What was measured
- Estimate
- 1.62e44
- Trials
- 1,100,000
- Estimator
- product of sequential legal-extension counts
- Unbiased
- yes
- Rigorous confidence interval reported
- no
- Exact count claim
- no
4How it connects
Contextualizes
- claim
Recorded for
- problem
5Agent packet
A compact handoff with the evidence boundary, replay manifest, and relation pointers.
View structured packet
{
"schema": "theoremdb-agent-record-v1",
"ref": "R654",
"content_hash": null,
"slug": "rls12-claim-published-estimate",
"type": "claim",
"title": "The primary order-12 estimate is 1.62 times 10^44",
"summary": "McKay and Rogoyski estimated R_12 at 1.62e44 using an unbiased sequential-extension estimator over 1.1 million trials.",
"relevance": "For Number of reduced Latin squares of order 12, record rls12-claim-published-estimate (“The primary order-12 estimate is 1.62 times 10^44”) records a bound, answer, status fact, or structural consequence. The record states: McKay and Rogoyski estimated R_12 at 1.62e44 using an unbiased sequential-extension estimator over 1.1 million trials.",
"relevance_source": "recorded",
"body": "McKay and Rogoyski generated a normalized Latin square row by row. At each step they chose uniformly among legal extensions with the required first-column entry. If \\(e_i\\) is the number of legal choices at step \\(i\\), then \\(e_1e_2\\cdots e_{n-1}\\) is an unbiased estimator of \\(R_n\\). Their Table 2 reports 1,100,000 trials for \\(n=12\\) and the estimate\n\\[\nR_{12}\\mathrel{\\approx}1.62\\times10^{44}.\n\\]\nThe authors described the displayed digits as probably accurate to one unit in the last shown digit. This value is statistical evidence. It is neither an exact integer nor a rigorous confidence interval.",
"status": "reported",
"evidence_grade": "sourced",
"scope": {
"kind": "bounded",
"statement": "the 1,100,000 randomized trials reported for reduced Latin squares of order 12",
"bounds": {
"order": {
"min": 12,
"max": 12
},
"trials": {
"min": 1100000,
"max": 1100000
}
},
"exhaustive": false
},
"reproduction": {
"schema": "theoremdb-reproduction-v1",
"readiness": "source_only",
"kind": "claim",
"citation": {
"url": "https://doi.org/10.37236/1222",
"locator": "Brendan D. McKay and Eric Rogoyski, Latin Squares of Order 10, Electronic Journal of Combinatorics 2 (1995), #N3, Section 3 and Table 2"
},
"missing": [
"source",
"command",
"runtime",
"expected_output"
]
},
"formal_statement": null,
"source": {
"url": "https://doi.org/10.37236/1222",
"locator": "Brendan D. McKay and Eric Rogoyski, Latin Squares of Order 10, Electronic Journal of Combinatorics 2 (1995), #N3, Section 3 and Table 2"
},
"models": [],
"relations": [
{
"slug": "R652",
"title": "The exact enumeration record ends at order 11",
"object_type": "claim",
"relation": "contextualizes",
"direction": "outgoing"
},
{
"slug": "reduced-latin-squares-order-12",
"title": "reduced latin squares order 12",
"object_type": "problem",
"relation": "recorded_for",
"direction": "outgoing"
}
]
}6Provenance
View source, identifiers, and projection details
- Project
- reduced-latin-squares-order-12
- Locator
- Brendan D. McKay and Eric Rogoyski, Latin Squares of Order 10, Electronic Journal of Combinatorics 2 (1995), #N3, Section 3 and Table 2
- License
- CC0-1.0
- Contributors
- TheoremDB entry research, 2026-07-25
- Source
- doi.org ↗
- Public record
- R654
- Stable alias
- rls12-claim-published-estimate
- Projection
- Reproduction fields are derived from the immutable record.
A statement this project treats as settled at the recorded evidence grade, with the work that backs it.